Transcript
Transcript: Reflections by Gary A. Bolles
[00:00:00 A series of images of people walking along busy urban streets; a Canadian flag flying on the side of a building; an aerial view of Parliament Hill and downtown Ottawa; the interior of a library; a view of Earth from space. Text on screen: Leadership; Policy; Governance; Innovation.]
Narrator: Public servants, thought leaders, and experts from across Canada are reflecting on the ideas shaping public service, leadership, policy, governance, innovation, and beyond.
[00:00:17 Title page: Review and Reflections. CSPS logo. Text on screen: Produced by the Canada School of Public Service.]
Narrator: This is the Review and Reflection Series, produced by the Canada School of Public Service.
[00:00:26 Gary Bolles appears full screen. Text on screen: Gary A. Bolles, Global Fellow for Transformation, Singularity University/ Author, The Next Rules of Work.]
Taki Sarantakis: So, today we are here with Gary Bolles. And Gary Bolles is a good friend of the Canada School of Public Service, but that's not why he's here. He's here because he's one of the most interesting people that we have at the School. Gary has a lot of interests.
One, he's an expert on the future of work. Another is he's fascinated by technology, and emerging technology. Then the third, he does something that Yogi Berra used to call very, very difficult. He's a futurist. I remember one of my favourite Yogi Berra-isms is, it is very, very difficult to make predictions, especially if they're about the future.
Gary, tell us a little bit about yourself before we get going.
Gary Bolles: First off, I truly appreciate all the opportunities to be able to spend time with the amazing team here at the School of Public Service, and I've met some of the most fascinating people. It's been a tremendous opportunity for me to be able to see how you're continually preparing the people who will lead in the Government in Canada in the future.
I've got a variety of hats that I spin constantly. Sometimes even I have trouble keeping track of them. I have what I call a portfolio of work.
[00:01:55 Brief overlaid image of the book, The Next Rules of Work.]
Gary Bolles: I've got a book called The Next Rules of Work. I say the mindset, skillset, and toolset to lead your organization in times of uncertainty, which I think we can all agree we're certainly living in. I'm the Global Fellow for Transformation,
[00:02:10 Brief overlaid image of the Singularity Group logo.]
Gary Bolles: for a group called Singularity University, which is a global think tank, all these brainiacs about the future, different technologies, exponential technologies that are affecting our industries, our organizations, and our lives.
[00:02:25 Brief overlaid images of Gary Bolles' LinkedIn courses, as described.]
Gary Bolles: I've got, I think it's now 10 courses on LinkedIn learning with over a million and a half learners, courses like learning mindset, learning agility, which I've just updated for the age of AI. I'm rewriting two courses now on strategic agility and developing your future workforce in the age of AI. So, the opportunity is for people to be able to see some of the ways that technology and world events are changing our world and how they can get ahead of it. What are the strategies to be able to be continually relevant?
And then, just because there's not enough time in the day, we've also got a small but mighty software company,
[00:03:02 Brief overlaid images of eParachute's website home page, and the book What Colour is Your Parachute.]
Gary Bolles: called eParachute, which is built from the knowledge of a book called What Colour is Your Parachute, which is the enduring career manual, 10 million copies in print. And it's basically a methodology for how people go through life pivots, how they change careers.
So, you munge all that together. I lecture around the world, and I have the opportunity to meet some of the most fascinating people and learn from them and then synthesize a lot of those insights. And happily, a lot of those are government stakeholders, from Brazil to Greece, and beyond.
Taki Sarantakis: So, what are you hearing from people from Brazil and Greece? Is it a happy time? Are people having angst? Are people scared, confused?
Gary Bolles: All the above. So, if you distill, I'm not trying to simplify, but if you distill people and the way that they often think about the future, which does generate for many people a lot of anxiety – I want them to be hopeful, I want them to see all the opportunity that can come – but if you distill that, first off, I find out that while people are inspired, or at least could get some vision of longer term future threads or scenarios, what they really care about is tomorrow. The future they care about is, what do I do next? So, that's why I call my book The Next Rules of Work. I overuse the word next in a lot of what I write and talk about.
But the basic premise, first off, is that people want to see a hopeful vision for the future, but they really want information that can help them to make good life decisions. There are just some peculiar ways that our brains work, which I'm happy to talk about. A lot of the cognitive biases that we have where we over optimize for near term decisions, and they're heavily optimized for them.
And the second insight I want to offer is that, even though there's specific examples of the ways the technology changing work and learning and economies and organizations, the two things that really tend to impact people the most are the pace and the scale of change.
So, if change moved very slowly and affected a lot of people, we would all adapt. If change didn't affect a lot of people, but it moved very quickly, those people would be directly affected, but a lot of people would be insulated from change. It's the pace and scale of change. It's moving faster and faster. We've got some great examples in recent history, and it's affecting more and more people more rapidly.
[00:05:42 Brief overlaid image of Open A I Gpt 3. 5 app sign in page.]
Gary Bolles: Chat Gpt 3. 5 from Open A I was released in November 2022. The speed with which 2 million people were using it was about 30 days. And if we went back to the dawn of the Internet, when companies like America Online had to mail CD-ROMs around and you had to install it in a CD-ROM drive, which I'm sure many young people today have never even seen. Grandpa, what's a CD-ROM drive? That would have taken probably years to get to that scale. And so, it's because we've got these layers of different technology that all are on top of each other that speed the pace that people can adopt these new technologies and more and more people are affected. And that just completely freaks out the human brain. We're not all optimized to be able to deal with the pace and scale.
Taki Sarantakis: Yes. We have a lot of people around the world right now that are worried about work. As you mentioned, we're at a pivot point. Not the first time in human history, we've worried about work. We've worried about work during globalization. We've worried about work during the automation. We've worried about work when we shifted from muscles to other things.
Talk to us a little bit, set the stage, what is work? What is this thing that humans are obsessed with?
Gary Bolles: I'll talk a little bit about the history of work and how we, as humans, have used our skills and the ways that we have solved problems and created value in that sort of thing. Then we can see how that applies pretty readily right now to this environment.
So, first off, the Western concept of work as something we would want to do, as something we feel motivated to do, is actually very recent in human history.
[00:07:47 Brief overlaid image of a portrait of Martin Luther. Text on screen: Martin Luther was a German theologian and monk who initiated the Protestant Reformation in the early 16th century.]
Gary Bolles: Martin Luther, believe it or not, the Reformation was the first wave in Western culture, where Luther basically said, God wants you to work. And so, that created all these ripple effects, where we went from work being thought of as anathema, it's like a curse in earlier eras, to something where we felt that we were being compelled to work.
And then pretty much within the past 100 years or so, there's been an ethos developing. Well, no, you could actually do work that actually has some satisfaction, some purpose.
[00:08:24 Brief overlaid photo of Richard Nelson Bolles.]
Gary Bolles: My father was a recovering Episcopalian priest who wrote this book, What Colour is Your Parachute, and he added on an element that he thought was useful, which is it's not just that you're doing work where you get paid, or work that you're doing well, like a vocation, but it's also something that you might enjoy. You might feel there's a purpose, or a meaning to it.
So, work mechanically is just three things. It's our human skills applied to tasks to solve problems. So, when we start a new business, when we start a new job, when you start a new division of a government, a new agency, there's a bunch of problems to be solved. We, as humans, we bring our skills to perform tasks to solve those problems. But what's happened throughout history is that automation automates tasks.
Taki Sarantakis: It's a good thing, though, isn't it?
Gary Bolles: Well, it's a good thing for certain people. It benefits certain, and then eventually it benefits more. But let's just say we'll describe a brand-new technology that's going to completely disrupt the work of the time. It's called the ox-driven plow. There's this plow, and you used to use your hands, and you probably could work just about as much as anybody else could and plant a whole bunch of seeds in a field. Then I come along, and I say, well, no, actually, we're going to till the field, and we've got this piece of metal that's going to get pulled by this ox. And if you own an ox, and if you can afford a plow, then you're going to benefit.
But if you can't, we've divided labour. Labour has to work for the person who owns the plow and the ox. And so, the people who benefit are the ones that can own the method of production. The people that work, what ends up happening over time is if you can't own those things, you simply can't work hard enough. You can't till enough fields to be able to match what the ox and plow can do.
And so, now we fast forward to technologies like generative artificial intelligence.
Taki Sarantakis: But let's pause here before we get there. So, I think everybody understands work vis-a-vis income. But we also identify as our work. Like one of the first things when you meet somebody, what do you do? Why is it so important to humans that we have this relationship with work that seems to be akin to the relationship with our children, or with our spouses, or with our community? It seems to define us in this very interesting way.
Gary Bolles: I'm going to say, I think it's a spectrum for many people where there are some people who want to show up, do their work. Really, the only meaning they feel they get is that they can feed their families and put a roof over their head. Which is great. That is just great.
Taki Sarantakis: That's income.
Gary Bolles: It's income, and you probably are able to leave the job at the end of the day. You don't think about it at home, and you don't define yourself, necessarily, by that work.
Then the other end of the spectrum, your work is a significant portion of your life. You are a lawyer, you are a doctor, that's who you are as a person, and so that's rooted in your identity. I believe everybody finds different motivations. A lot of it depends upon this matching process of who you think you are, what your skills are, and then the work that you're doing. And if you feel that it's a very, very close match, you're going to develop a very strong identity. And if you feel it's less of a match – no, no, I've got all this stuff that I do outside of my work and the tasks I'm performing, the problems that I'm solving, it's not a deep part of me – then you're not going to be as connected to work.
Taki Sarantakis: Right. So, you don't do doctoring or do lawyering. You are a doctor. You are a lawyer.
Gary Bolles: But the challenge then is if that work is no longer available to you. So, there's a variety of different industries, and public service is one of them, where it's almost hermetically sealed. It's got its own rules. It's like mother and father. It's an environment where once you've learned the rules, they're not always as transferable into other areas. And you see the same thing in medicine. You see the same thing with teachers, ministers, military. Once you're in these institutions, these environments, then the transferability of the skills and the mindset, and so on, that can sometimes be hard for people.
It's one of the reasons I mentioned my father and his book. He was a minister in San Francisco in the 1960s, and he got laid off in a budget crunch.
Taki Sarantakis: Ministers get laid off?
Gary Bolles: Well, there's only two ways in Episcopalian church you can get laid off. One is that you are asked to seek another flock. Oh, yes, there's a church over there you might want to go check out. And then the other is, oh, it's a cathedral. We have a budget crunch. We just don't have as much money. Hey, I'm sorry, your services are no longer needed.
[00:13:40 Brief overlaid photo of the Bolles family.]
Gary Bolles: So, in his late 40s, he had a family of four kids and a wife and unemployed for six months, eventually found a job, but it was helping other ministers on college campuses, and they were getting laid off. So, he first wrote his book, What Colour is Your Parachute, for ministers. Vocation with a capital V, meaning with a capital M. And it was all about how you can take the skills you've learned, the problems that you've solved and how they might be transferable into other environments.
And so, that's the challenge and opportunity with identity is, he said, well, maybe one of the ways to shift your thinking, if you're a lawyer and you can't find work as a lawyer, or you're a doctor and you can't find work as a doctor, or you just decide you want to do something different, you step back and you say, Well, I'm a person who has the skills of a lawyer and the skills of a doctor. And what are those skills? Oh, it turns out many of them are completely transferable to another environment.
And so, it's wonderful to have that sense of rootedness and identity so long as you keep on doing the work. And if it's no longer viable for you or it's not the thing that you want to do, then shifting that identity towards the skills that you have, the problems that you can solve, is a far better way to be able to adapt.
Taki Sarantakis: So, let's move now to the elephant in the room, artificial intelligence. So, as humans, we are very, very used to machines and tools and automation taking tasks away from us, and in many cases, taking work that a lot of people don't find rewarding and making our lives a little bit easier. Then there's a period of disruption for the people that used to, as you put it earlier, put seeds in the ground or try to pull things out that now the ox with a tool is doing. Artificial intelligence seems different. It seems that it is the first time it is coming for things that are innately human. Talk to us a little bit about artificial intelligence and work.
[00:13:40 Brief overlaid photo of a magazine article about Singularity University; it shows a photo of Ray Kurzweil.]
Gary Bolles: So, Singularity University, one of our founders is Ray Kurzweil, and I've had many fascinating conversations with Ray and many others, and I've been lecturing for decades now that there's going to be this technology that's going to come along, and it's going to have a lot of the capacity to perform tasks that humans have done, especially when it relates to language and what we sometimes call thinking.
So, the internet, when it first really took off in the mid-1990s, many of the same predictions were made. It's this new technology. It's going to connect everybody. Eventually, all work is going to be completely disrupted. One of the greatest canaries in the coal mine was journalism. I'm a recovering journalist. I used to be the editorial director for six different technology magazines in the 1990s, and we predicted it's going to completely wipe out traditional journalism.
Well, it did, but it's taken 30 years. So, about half the employment that was in journalism is gone, has evaporated in the past 30 years, but far more jobs were created in what we think of as new media. And if you say, well, social media marketing, that was not a thing. In 1995, a whole bunch of new jobs were created. But we got to go back to pace and scale.
So, along comes ChatGPT 3. 5, and there have been other technologies that have had certain similar capacities, but that was the leap forward,
[00:17:33 Brief overlaid image of the Netscape Navigator home page.]
Gary Bolles: in the same way that the Netscape browser was a leap forward in the beginning of the internet. There's this leap forward, and suddenly then we all say, Wait a minute. This is doing things I used to just associate with human beings.
Now, there have been technologies that have performed some of those activities and faked people out. Going back 30 years, there was something called Eliza, which was one of the first chat bots, and it was done with just text and on a computer. But it actually fooled people about 30 years ago. It was not unlike a conversation with ChatGPT 3. 5 today. It just wasn't as versatile.
So, what ends up happening is these technologists have come up with a way to be able to basically hoover up a huge amount of human knowledge. So, just pick up this big digital Hoover vacuum cleaner, sucking up all this information, and then throwing a bunch of algorithms at it.
[00:18:24 A series of overlaid images of the Chat Gpt start page. A conversation starts. Text on screen: What can I help with? Hi, how are you? Hi! I'm here and ready to help – how about you? What's on your mind today? I'm doing well, thank you! Can you help me out? I'm glad to hear that! And absolutely – what do you need help with?]
Gary Bolles: And then when we query it, spewing it back to us and typing it out, making it look like it's a human thinking a little bit, and then speaking back to us. But then it's performing these tasks we used to think, oh, only a human could write poetry. Only a human could generate these images. Only a human could write a book. And now we find that it's not, in many cases, great, but it's good enough. So, it fits this bar where people who might have hired freelancers before to do text writing and that sort of thing, they're probably going to outsource it now to the technology.
So, what happens over and over again is there's a reset period. We don't yet know what the real impact on work is. We know there's some near-term work roles where the technology is just really, really good. So, customer service, for instance. A lot of customer service reps are having to either learn a higher skillset or they're going to have to shift to other work because a lot of it's going to be automated. And so, we're just now figuring out what some of that work is.
But it's important – there's two dynamics I want to make sure we're pointing out to people. The first is that what is different about this technology, significantly different, is that it can actually empower humans to learn new skills more rapidly, solve problems more rapidly. There's been a number of tests in different work roles. It actually empowers the less trained person more than the more trained person.
And that's true in coding. That's certainly true in some of the image generation, in things like developing PowerPoint presentations and those sorts of things. It doesn't make the person who's really good at it that much better, but it makes somebody who's absolutely unschooled in it up to speed really fast. So, that's the first dynamic is these technologies will help us to do learning faster, to solve problems faster, and potentially to be able to do better paid work more rapidly.
The other dynamic that's important with any technology to understand is robots and software don't take jobs. They just don't. They automate tasks. Human skills apply to tasks to solve problems. They're just automating those tasks. If all those tasks add up to a job, it's a human's decision, at least right now, if the job goes away.
And so, the companies where people are most affected are the organizations where there's skills and tasks that are being performed that these new technologies can do. If they have a very inclusive mindset about keeping people in work and well-paid work and training them to be able to solve other problems and develop new skills, these technologies are really good at doing that.
But if it's a company that is very shareholder-driven and all it wants to do is just lay people off because it thinks it can be more efficient and make the remaining people more productive, they're going to lay people off under any circumstances.
Taki Sarantakis: That was actually one of the big insights I gleaned amongst many from a book, I'm sure you know, Co-intelligence, where the author said that study after study after study has shown that AI helps the least skilled workers, the workers that most people are worried about in the age of automation.
Let's shift now. We've set a little bit of the frame of work. I really, really enjoy the way, in your book, you lay out the framework. So, you talk about skill set, tool set, mindset. Why don't you walk us through each of those in any order that you would find congenial.
Gary Bolles: So, let me just set the table a little bit with what the difference between them is. So, I often say mindset, skillset, and toolset are the three legs of the stool for how each of us, as individuals, navigates a world of exponential change. So, I wave a magic wand, and you and I are standing at the foot of a mountain.
Taki Sarantakis: In Greece or in Brazil?
Gary Bolles: Well, it's a... you get to choose.
Taki Sarantakis: Okay, I want Greece.
Gary Bolles: Okay, So, we're standing at the foot of... Etna, maybe?
Taki Sarantakis: Yes, or Mount Olympus.
Gary Bolles: Okay, you get to pick. As I've waved the magic wand, I have given you all the skillset of a mountain climber. So, you've climbed a mountain 100 times before, every single detail of what it takes. But you look up at the top and you say, meh, it looks too cold, it looks too high. So, you have all the skillset, but none of the mindset. You're not going to climb the mountain. It doesn't matter how good you are at it. You're just not prepared.
So, I wave the magic wand again, and now you have all the mindset of a mountain climber, but none of the skillset. So, you've never climbed a mountain before, but you look up at the top and you say, how hard could that be? So, you take one step, two steps. You encounter problems. Remember, humans solve problems. And you solve them just in time and just in context. That is, you haven't gone back to get a four-year mountain climbing degree. Maybe you pull out your digital distraction device, your cell phone, and you look up, how do I climb a col? Or you try to solve the problem in real time with just the limited information you need.
And then eventually, you reach the top of the mountain, and you look down, and you say, how hard was that? And you learned the skillset from climbing.
So, we all need a 21st century skillset, and I'm happy to talk about what I think that is. But mindset eats skillset for lunch. If you and your team are walking into a meeting and you think, we've got this. We've got the psychological diversity. We can provide the psychological safety. We're going to come up with amazing ideas. You're just as right as if you say, we can't. However, if you are standing in front of an ice wall – I don't know if ice walls are on Mount Etna – but you're standing in front of an ice wall, I don't care how good your mindset or skill set is, you need a good toolset. You've got to have the pickaxe; you've got to have the boots. And so, you think of the tool set as a set of techniques and technologies empowering you to have the skill set and to be able to superpower your mindset so you can solve problems you've never encountered before. So, that's why it's important, I think, to think of mindset, skillset, and toolset as being very complementary. But what we want to do is we want to help people to change mindsets. We want to help them to be able to adapt.
So, now in a world of constant change, if you have a mindset that you are continually adaptive, if you have a mindset that you can solve problems, if you have a mindset that you can be flexible, you walk into your work and it's not what you anticipated. It's something different and you can adapt. You can be flexible and say, Okay, now that's the problem that I'm going to solve. You're going to be far more likely to be able to adapt.
But if you think, no, I'm a lawyer. I'm a doctor. I'm going to do it the way I've always done it, and you cannot adapt, then you're at risk because we know that virtually every job, especially it's dependent upon information, it's not that... Work isn't that different for a brick layer nowadays. Work isn't that different from a ditch digger. But any work that has information dependency is very likely to change very dramatically. And so, that's what we need, is this mindset for flexibility and adaptability.
Taki Sarantakis: What does that mean for bureaucracies in particular? Because bureaucracies, I think, by definition, seem to be,
[00:26:05 Brief overlaid image of Max Weber.]
Taki Sarantakis: you read Max Weber, you read all the great people that talked about bureaucracy and have thought deeply about bureaucracy. Bureaucracy seems to be about making sure that tomorrow looks very much like yesterday. Talk to us about this new world. Is it particularly challenging for bureaucracy? Not just in a governmental context, but organizations that are bureaucratic in the private sector, or not-for-profits.
Gary Bolles: I mentioned cognitive biases before, and one of my favourite collaborators is Dr. Evian Gordon. He's got the world's largest brain database, and he's one of the most amazing, most knowledgeable people about the human brain. And so, he has this database with literally tens of thousands of studies, and he's sifted all this information.
I had lunch with Evian a while back, and I said, Dr. Evian, if you could distill down everything you know about the human brain, what is the one major takeaway? And he said, Oh, that's very simple. It's only two words: Safety first. That's what our brains are optimized for. When we all used to live on the savannah or in a forest, and we saw something moving in the distance, we would have to decide very, very quickly, is that my lunch? Or am I its lunch? Is that good for me or is it bad for me? We have to do that over and over again. What we do is we have all these cognitive biases that optimize for safety. We want to protect. If we have something, we want to protect it.
And so, what ends up happening with bureaucracies is there's a lot of really, really valid reasons as to why bureaucracies protect. In government service, you need laws, regulations, rules, because what are the assets you're protecting? It's the assets from your citizens. It's the citizens' lives. And so, we need to protect them. What we do is we put these layers upon layers of bureaucracy, rules, regulations.
And the challenge, unfortunately, is that, as I'm fond of saying, it's often... You think of rules, regulations, bureaucracies as having two instruments that they use. It's either I want to encourage you to do something, if you think of that as a lubricant, it's oil, or I want to discourage you from doing something, that's glue. And so, what ends up happening in bureaucracies is all these layers of glue and oil, and it's very hard sometimes to figure out what you should do. And so, what does safety first encourages you to do is, oh, you're just going to focus on protecting us. You can't do that.
So, what happens with public service is often amazing people who want to be able to do good in the world are attracted to public service because they want to help citizens, they want to create a better life for people. And what they're entering into is a bureaucracy with a lot of these rules, and the mindset that is encouraged is one that wants to protect.
And so, the result often is you have to help people to be able to adapt new mindsets in bureaucracies, to be able to think of ways that you can actually still protect those assets, but you can move fast, you can solve problems more rapidly, and you can help more people.
Taki Sarantakis: Now, I was going to close with, given that you're a futurist, I was going to ask you a question that I think you've answered throughout the interview, but maybe let's tie it up in a nice bow. Who owns the future? What types of characteristics will thrive in the future? What types of behaviours will not serve one well in the future?
Gary Bolles: I think it's a little ironic that, given the futurist label, I was a long-time Chair for the Future of Work for Singularity University before expanded the remit to focus on transformation. And so, I often shy away from the title by instead trying to show people, well, here's the through lines that I see, and you can map it out for yourself. So, I'll tell you, just based on past and especially recent experience, a couple of things are probably quite true. Pace and scale of change is not going to slow down.
[00:30:32 Brief overlaid image of Shelly Palmer.]
Gary Bolles: My friend, Shelly Palmer, who is a futurist, he says, Today is the slowest day of the rest of your life. You're going to be telling your kids, I remember when we didn't stick a chip in the back of our heads and call a flying Uber. So, it's going to keep on changing. It's going to affect lots and lots of people more rapidly.
So, what we need is to, as often as possible and as much as possible, where we have heavily indexed on safekeeping, which is often called a fixed mindset, which sounds negative, but it's perfectly understandable. If you liked yesterday and you want tomorrow to be like today, that's perfectly wonderful. It's just that in a world of exponential change, it doesn't always mean that we can adapt.
So, I suggest a couple of things. The first is practicing your mindset change. How can you develop a more flexible, a more growth-oriented mindset? How can you, as an individual, continually empower yourself to be able to learn new skills, solve new problems? Second is, how can you help others? Because that's how you learn, how you demonstrate by showing others the way to be able to continually adapt. And then the third is, it's a tool set. It's very likely we're all going to have to learn to use it.
If I had told you 15 years ago, there's going to be this device we're all going to carry around, this digital distraction device, and it's going to have your life on it. You're going to learn all these apps. Fifteen years ago, most people would have said, I don't want the thing, but everybody's got them nowadays, and it's going to be exactly the same with this new toolset. So, if you cannot see it so much as a disruptor, but instead the ways you can use it to learn more rapidly, to be able to solve problems in new ways, to help others to solve problems in new ways, the more you're going to be prepared for the future.
Taki Sarantakis: Gary Bolles, most people in life are very, very fortunate if they have one gift. You have at least two. The first is you have an insightful, curious mind, and the second is you can communicate that insight and that curiosity in ways that even dullards like myself can understand.
Gary Bolles: The third is that I have built great friendships with people like you.
Taki Sarantakis: That's very kind. Thank you so much for taking the time today to talk to us, as always, at the Canada School of Public Service. I know that people will take many insights away from this conversation. Thank you.
Gary Bolles: Thanks, and thank you.
[00:33:10 The CSPS animated logo appears onscreen. Text on screen: canada.ca/school.]
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